Endorsement Track Record for 2024 Missouri Primary
How each endorser’s endorsed candidates performed in this primary.
Now that the 2024 Missouri Primary elections are over, let’s look at how each big names and organizations performance when it comes to which candidates they endorsed and which candidates won. Below, the list of endorsers starts with individuals then next with organizations, and it is in alphabetical order (by last name for individuals).
Winning endorsements will be bolded.
Losing endorsements will be italicized.
Here’s the 2024 Missouri Primary Endorsement Guide, a huge list of endorsements in all the competitive primary elections: https://medium.com/@gavinsample/2024-missouri-primary-endorsement-guide-1772faeb8551
Here’s the info from this article in the form of a X thread: https://x.com/GavinSampleMO/status/1821304840477163571
*I will update this article tomorrow (8/7) if there is any missing or incorrect info.
Mark Alford
Congressman Mark Alford, who represents Missouri’s 4th district, made 6 endorsements in a total of 6 races, with zero co-endorsements. Out of 6 races, 5 of Alford’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
5/6 races = 83% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor: Holly Thompson Rehder
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey
Secretary of State: Denny Hoskins
State Treasurer: Vivek Malek
State Senate District 21 (R): Kurtis Gregory
Eric Burlison
Congressman Eric Burlison, who represents Missouri’s 7th district, made 7 endorsements in a total of 6 races, with 1 co-endorsement. Out of 6 races, 5 of Burlison’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
5/6 races = 83% Win Rate.
Governor: Jay Ashcroft and Bill Eigel
Lt. Governor: David Wasinger
Congressional District 3: Bob Onder
State Senate District 29 (R): Mike Moon
State Senate District 31 (R): Rick Brattin
State Senate District 33 (R): Brad Hudson
Mike Lee
Senator Mike Lee, who represents Utah, made 4 endorsements in a total of 4 races, with zero co-endorsements. Out of 4 races, 2 of Lee’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
2/4 races = 50% Win Rate.
Governor: Bill Eigel
Secretary of State: Denny Hoskins
State Senate District 21 (R): Doug Richey
State Senate District 31 (R): Rick Brattin
Quinton Lucas
Mayor Quinton Lucas, who is the Mayor of Kansas City, Missouri, made 2 endorsements. Out of 2 races, 2 of Lucas’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
2/2 races = 100% Win Rate.
Jackson County Prosecutor (D): Melesa Johnson
Senate District 9 (D): Barbara Washington
Mike Parson
Missouri Governor Mike Parson made 3 endorsements in a total of 3 races, with zero co-endorsements. Out of 3 races, 3 of Parson’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
3/3 races = 100% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey
State Treasurer: Vivek Malek
Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump made 8 endorsements in a total of 4 races, with 3 co-endorsements. Out of 4 races, 4 of Trump’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
4/4 races = 100% Win Rate.
Governor: Jay Ashcroft, Bill Eigel and Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor: Holly Thompson Rehder and David Wasinger
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf
Congressional District 3: Bob Onder
Americans for Prosperity — Missouri
Americans for Prosperity (AFP) — Missouri made 4 endorsements. Out of 4 races, 1 of AFP’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
1/4 races = 25% Win Rate.
State Senate District 21 (R): Doug Richey
State House District 64 (R): Tony Lovasco
State House District 109 (R): John Simmons
State House District 123 (R): Lisa Thomas
Freedom Principle MO — Missouri First PAC
Freedom Principle MO — Missouri First PAC made 30 endorsements. Out of 30 races, 18 of FPMO’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
18/30 races = 60% Win Rate.
Governor: Bill Eigel
Lt. Governor: Tim Baker
Attorney General: Will Scharf
Secretary of State: Denny Hoskins
State Treasurer: Lori Rook
Congressional District 3: Bob Onder
State Senate District 3 (R): Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway
State Senate District 11 (R): Joe Nicola
State Senate District 21 (R): Doug Richey
State Senate District 23 (R): Adam Schnelting
State Senate District 27 (R): Jacob Turner
State Senate District 29 (R): Mike Moon
State Senate District 31 (R): Rick Brattin
State Senate District 33 (R): Brad Hudson
State House District 33 (R): Carolyn Caton
State House District 54 (R): Matthew Sergent
State House District 56 (R): Ryan Johnson
State House District 61 (R): Paul Stratman
State House District 64 (R): Deanna Self
State House District 100 (R): Philip Oehlerking
State House District 109 (R): John Simmons
State House District 110 (R): Justin Sparks
State House District 119 (R): Rafael Madrigal
State House District 123 (R): Jeff Vernetti
State House District 128 (R): Derral Reynolds
State House District 140 (R): Jamie Gragg
State House District 141 (R): Melissa Schmidt
State House District 153 (R): Vinnie Clubb
State House District 156 (R): Brian Seitz
State House District 163 (R): Cathy Loy
Missouri AFL-CIO
Missouri AFL-CIO made 25 endorsements. Out of 25 races, 17 of AFL-CIO’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
17/25 races = 68% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor: Lincoln Hough
Congressional District 3: Kurt Schaefer
Jackson County Prosecutor (D): John Gromowsky
State Senate District 7 (D): Patty Lewis
State Senate District 9 (D): Barbara Washington
State Senate District 21 (R): Kurtis Gregory
State Senate District 27 (R): Jamie Burger
State Senate District 31 (R): Dan Houx
State House District 33 (R): Carolyn Caton
State House District 50 (D): Gregg Bush
State House District 66 (D): Marlene Terry
State House District 67 (D): Tonya Rush
State House District 68 (D): Kem Smith
State House District 70 (D): Durell Reeves
State House District 73 (D): Raychel Proudie
State House District 75 (D): Catina Howard
State House District 78 (D): Marty (Joe) Murray
State House District 80 (D): Ben Murray
State House District 81 (D): Steve Butz
State House District 99 (D): Ian Mackey
State House District 109 (R): Kyle Marquart
State House District 113 (R): Phil Amato
State House District 119 (R): Brad Banderman
State House District 123 (R): Jeff Vernetti
Missouri Cattlemen’s Association
Missouri Cattlemen’s Association made 15 endorsements in 14 races, with 1 co-endorsement. Out of the 14 races, 7 of the Cattlemen’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
7/14 races = 50% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor: Lincoln Hough
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey
State Treasurer: Vivek Malek
Congressional District 3: Kurt Schaefer
State Senate District 3 (R): Mike Henderson
State Senate District 7 (D): Pat Contreras
State Senate District 9 (D): Barbara Washington
State Senate District 11 (R): Aaron McMullen
State Senate District 21 (R): Kurtis Gregory
State Senate District 23 (R): Phil Christofanelli
State Senate District 27 (R): Jamie Burger
State Senate District 31 (R): Mike Haffner and Dan Houx
State Senate District 33 (R): Travis Smith
Missouri Chamber of Commerce
Missouri Chamber of Commerce made 15 endorsements. Out of 15 races, 11 of the Chamber’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
11/15 races = 73% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
State Senate District 3 (R): Mike Henderson
State Senate District 9 (D): Barbara Washington
State Senate District 21 (R): Kurtis Gregory
State Senate District 23 (R): Phil Christofanelli
State Senate District 27 (R): Jamie Burger
State Senate District 31 (R): Dan Houx
State Senate District 33 (R): Travis Smith
State House District 61 (R): Bruce Sassmann
State House District 81 (D): Steve Butz
State House District 99 (D): Ian Mackey
State House District 100 (R): Philip Oehlerking
State House District 113 (R): Phil Amato
State House District 116 (R): Dale Wright
State House District 123 (R): Lisa Thomas
State House District 143 (R): Bennie Cook
State House District 161 (R): Lane Roberts
Missouri Farm Bureau
Missouri Farm Bureau made 7 endorsements. Out of 7 races, 3 of the Farm Bureau’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
3/7 races = 43% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor: Lincoln Hough
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey
Congressional District 3: Kurt Schaefer
State Senate District 11 (R): Aaron McMullen
State Senate District 21 (R): Kurtis Gregory
State Senate District 31 (R): Mike Haffner
Missouri Firearms Coalition (Ratings)
Missouri Firearms Coalition did not endorse any candidates, as it is a non-profit 501(c)(4) organization. They did, however, issue ratings in 24 races. Out of 24 races, 13 of the Firearms Coalition’s highest-rated candidates won their primary election.
13/24 races = 54% Win Rate.
Governor: Bill Eigel
Lt. Governor: Holly Thompson Rehder
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey
Secretary of State: Denny Hoskins
Congressional District 3: Bob Onder
State Senate District 3 (R): Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway
State Senate District 21 (R): Doug Richey
State Senate District 23 (R): Adam Schnelting
State Senate District 27 (R): Chris Dinkins and Jacob Turner
State Senate District 29 (R): Mike Moon
State Senate District 31 (R): Rick Brattin
State Senate District 33 (R): Brad Hudson
State Senate District 27 (R): Chris Dinkins
State House District 54 (R): Matthew Sergent
State House District 64 (R): Tony Lovasco
State House District 109 (R): John Simmons
State House District 110 (R): Justin Sparks
State House District 111 (R): Cecelie Williams
State House District 117 (R): Chad Brown and Mike Miller
State House District 119 (R): Rafael Madrigal
State House District 140 (R): Jamie Gragg
State House District 154 (R): Lisa Durnell
State House District 156 (R): Brian Seitz
State House District 161 (R): Thomas Ross
Missouri Fraternal Order of Police
Missouri Fraternal Order of Police made 9 endorsements. Out of 9 races, 3 of the Fraternal Order of Police’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
3/9 races = 33% Win Rate.
Governor: Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor: Lincoln Hough
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey
State Treasurer: Cody Smith
Congressional District 3: Kurt Schaefer
Jackson County Prosecutor (D): John Gromowsky (Lodges 1, 50 and 99)
State Senate District 21 (R): Kurtis Gregory
State Senate District 27 (R): Jacob Turner (Lodge 51)
State House District 33 (R): Chris Sander
Missouri Freedom Caucus
Missouri Freedom Caucus made 16 endorsements in 13 races, with 2 co-endorsements. Out of 13 races, 10 of the Freedom Caucus’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
10/13 races = 77% Win Rate.
Governor: Bill Eigel
Lt. Governor: Tim Baker, Holly Thompson Rehder and David Wasinger
Secretary of State: Denny Hoskins
State Treasurer: Andrew Koenig and Cody Smith
Congressional District 3: Bob Onder
State Senate District 21 (R): Doug Richey
State Senate District 23 (R): Adam Schnelting
State Senate District 29 (R): Mike Moon
State Senate District 31 (R): Rick Brattin
State Senate District 33 (R): Brad Hudson
State House District 56 (R): Michael Davis
State House District 110 (R): Justin Sparks
State House District 156 (R): Brian Seitz
Missouri Right to Life PAC
Missouri Right to Life made 75 endorsements in 48 races, with 22 co-endorsements. Out of 48 races, 43 of the Freedom Caucus’s endorsed candidates won their primary election.
43/48 races = 90% Win Rate.
Governor: Jay Ashcroft
Lt. Governor: David Wasinger
Attorney General: Andrew Bailey and Will Scharf
Secretary of State: Denny Hoskins
State Treasurer: Andrew Koenig, Vivek Malek and Cody Smith
Congressional District 3: Bob Onder
State Senate District 3 (R): Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway and Mike Henderson
State Senate District 11 (R): David Martin, Aaron McMullen and Joe Nicola
State Senate District 15 (R): Jim Bowlin, David Gregory and Mark Harder
State Senate District 21 (R): Doug Richey
State Senate District 23 (R): Adam Schnelting
State Senate District 27 (R): Chris Dinkins
State Senate District 29 (R): Mike Moon
State Senate District 31 (R): Rick Brattin
State Senate District 33 (R): Brad Hudson
State House District 33 (R): Chris Sander
State House District 44 (R): Bryce Beal and John Martin
State House District 51 (R): Kerrick Alumbaugh and Mark Nolte
State House District 54 (R): Brandon Phelps and Matthew Sergent
State House District 56 (R): Michael Davis
State House District 61 (R): Bruce Sassmann
State House District 64 (R): Tony Lovasco
State House District 100 (R): Philip Oehlerking
State House District 104 (R): Jeremy Lloyd and Terri Violet
State House District 108 (R): Max Calfo and Mike Costlow
State House District 110 (R): Justin Sparks
State House District 113 (R): Phil Amato
State House District 115 (R): Dominic (Dom) Lawson and Bill Lucas
State House District 116 (R): Dale Wright
State House District 117 (R): Chad Brown, Becky Laubinger and Mike Miller
State House District 119 (R): Brad Banderman
State House District 120 (R): Lancer Blair and John Hewkin
State House District 128 (R): Christopher Warwick
State House District 132 (R): Stephanos Freeman and Bernadean McAfee
State House District 138 (R): Tom Franiak and Burt Whaley
State House District 140 (R): Jamie Gragg
State House District 141 (R): Melissa Schmidt and Zach Williams
State House District 143 (R): Bennie Cook
State House District 144 (R): Tony Harbison, Joe Loyd and Paul (Buck) Usher
State House District 145 (R): Dave Soto and Bryant Wolfin
State House District 146 (R): Barry Hovis
State House District 148 (R): David Dolan and Gary Senciboy
State House District 153 (R): Vinnie Clubb and Keith Elliott
State House District 154 (R): Mark Collins and Lisa Durnell
State House District 155 (R): Julie AuBuchon and Matthew Overcast
State House District 156 (R): Brian Seitz
State House District 161 (R): Lane Roberts
State House District 163 (R): Cathy Loy
