2024 UK General Election: Some Interesting Results and Almost-Wins
A breakdown of the closest seat results, ‘almost-wins’, and small party performances.
Just over one month ago, on July 4th, 2024, the United Kingdom held elections for their parliament. The results were nothing less than historic, with the incumbent Conservative Party receiving their lowest vote percentage and lowest percentage of seats in parliament since the party’s modern inception going back to the 1835 election, and it is likely the worst result going back even further to the modern party’s predecessor, the Tories, to the year 1661 with the formation of the Cavalier Parliament. For the Labour Party, the inverse occurred, with the party flipping the second-highest number of seats and winning the third-highest number of seats in their party’s 124-year history.
Outside of the two major parties, the UK’s general election produced many other interesting results.
Seats Won with the Lowest Percentage
There were at least 10 seats where the winning candidate won less than 30% of the vote. The seat whose winning candidate got the lowest percent of the vote is the constituency of South West Norfolk, where Labour flipped the Conservative-held seat of former-Prime Minister Liz Truss by winning only 26.72%. The 2nd lowest win-percentage seat was Blackburn, where a pro-Palestine independent candidate flipped a Labour-held seat with only 27% of the vote; Labour won this seat (under the old constituency boundaries) with 64.9% of the vote in 2019. The 3rd and 4th lowest win-percentage seats were both in Northern Ireland. The 3rd lowest win-percentage seat, East Londonderry, saw the conservative & unionist Democratic Unionist Party narrowly hold onto their seat with 27.9% despite a surging Sinn Fein. The 4th lowest win-percentage set, North Antrim, was flipped from DUP to Traditional Unionist Voice, a party seen as more pro-unionist and more conservative than the DUP.
Closest Seats
There were many seats were won by a very small amount of votes; 4 seats were won by under a 0.1% margin. Another 13 seats were won by less than 0.5%, 19 seats were won by less than 1%, and 47 seats were won by less than 2%.
The closest seat of the election was Hendon, a constituency in Greater London where Labour flipped a Conservative seat and won by only 0.04%, a difference of only 15 votes. The 2nd closest seat was Poole, a district on England’s south-central coast that was another Conservative-to-Labour flip and won by only 18 votes with a margin of 0.04%. The 3rd closest seat was Basildon and Billericay, located in southern Essex, which saw the Conservatives hold on by 20 votes with a 0.05% margin despite a strong 3rd-place performance by Reform UK. The 4th closest seat was North West Cambridgeshire, a seat in England’s east, which was another Conservative-to-Labour flip where Labour won by only 39 votes with a 0.09% margin.
While most of the media attention about the election results has focused on the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats, the smaller political parties had an unusually outsized impact on the contest. Below, each minor party’s closest ‘almost-win’ seats are described.
Reform UK’s Closest Almost-Won Seats
Reform UK, a relatively new right-wing party founded by Nigel Farage in 2018, made saw a huge increase in their national vote share this election. The party won 14.3% of the vote nationally, translating to 4.1 million votes and coming in 3rd place; however, they only picked up 5 seats due to their votes behind spread out across the country. In a several seats, Reform came very close to winning more seats. In Reform’s closest almost-won seat, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, this seat from Kent saw the Reform candidate fall short of the winning Labour candidate by 1,407 votes with only a 3.43% losing margin. In their 2nd closest seat, the previously mentioned Basildon and Billericay, Reform placed a very close 3rd place behind Conservative and Labour to finish 1,551 votes away from a win and losing by a 3.68% margin. In their 3rd closest seat, Llanelli, Reform placed 2nd in this Welsh seat where they finished with a 3.69% margin and losing by 1,504 votes.
Green Party’s Closest Almost-Won Seats
The Green Party saw massive gains as well, seeing their vote share more than double from 2.6% in 2019 to 6.7% in this election; they earned over 1.8 million votes, much higher than their 2019 result of just over 800,000. The Greens quadrupled their seat count, going from 1 seat to 4 seats. When looking at seats the Greens almost-won, they did not come particularly close in winning a 5th seat. The closest almost-won seat was Huddersfield, where they only came within a 11.29 margin in the Labor-held seat. The 2nd and 3rd closest seats for the Greens, Isle of Wight East and Bristol East respectively, both saw the party come within a 15% margin.
Scottish National Party’s Closest Almost-Won Seats
The Scottish National Party arguably had a worse election night than the Conservatives. The SNP went from winning 48 out of 59 Scottish seats in 2019 to only winning 9 seats in this election. Their vote share in Scotland dropped massively as well, with them going from winning 45% of the votes in Scotland in 2019 to winning just 30% of Scottish voters in 2024; by the numbers, this resulted in a drop of 1.2 million votes to just over 700,000 votes. The SNP closest almost-won seat was the new constituency of Gordon and Buchan, where the Conservatives beat the SNP by a 2% margin and won by 878 votes. The 2nd closest seat was Dumfries and Galloway, where the Conservatives held their seat and performed 2.03% better than the SNP, winning by 930 votes. The 3rd closest seat for the SNP was Stirling and Strathallan, a district that Labour flipped from the SNP by a 2.8% margin and winning 1,394 votes.
Plaid Cymru’s Closest Almost-Won Seats
Plaid Cymru, translated to ‘Party of Wales’ in English, saw no change in their seat count but did see their vote share in Wales increase. Between the 2019 and 2024 UK general elections, Wales overall seat allotment decreased from 40 to 32; despite this eight seat loss, Plaid Cymru did not lose any seats in this previous election. Their share of the vote in Wales increased from 9.9% in 2019 to 14.8% in 2024; this was a numerical increase from over 150,000 votes in 2019 to just over 194,000 votes in 2024. The election results put Plaid Cymru in a similar position to the Green Party in that they did not come particularly close to winning another seat. Plaid Cymru’s closest almost-won seat was the previously-mentioned Llanelli, where PC came in 3rd behind Labour and Reform and lost by a 7.95% margin. Plaid Cymru’s 2nd closest seat, Bangor Aberconwy, saw them lose to Labour by a margin on 11.75%. Plaid Cymru’s 3rd closest seat, Cardiff West, was another loss to Labour but this time was by a margin of 15.68%.
Independent Candidates’ Closest Almost-Won Seats
An electoral revolt occurred among many Muslim voters who chose to vote for independent candidates instead of Labour due to disputes over the Labour Party’s stance on Gaza & Israel. This resulted in independent candidates receiving over 500,000 votes nationwide, increasing the vote share of independent candidates from 0.56% in 2019 to 1.96% in 2024, an increase of 1.4%. The closest almost-won seat for an independent candidate, Ilford North, was held by Labour by only a 1.13% margin and by 528 votes. The 2nd closest seat for independents, Bradford West, saw Labour hold on by a 1.91% margin and by 707 votes. The 3rd closest seat, Bethnal Green and Stepney, was held by Labour by a slightly more comfortable margin of 3.62% and 1,689 votes.
Worker’s Party’s Closest Almost-Won Seats
The Worker’s Party of Britain stunned British politics back in February of 2024 when its leader, former MP George Galloway, won a by-election in Rochdale. The socialist, socially conservative and pro-Palestinian party sought to improve on this result in the general election. Despite getting over 200,000 votes across the country which was 0.7% of the total vote share, the party not only did not gain anymore seat but lost their lone seat in Rochdale. The Worker’s Party’s closest almost-won seat, Birmingham Yardley, saw their candidate lose by only a 1.92% margin and by just 693 votes. The 2nd closest seat was Rochdale, where George Galloway feel short by a margin of 3.63% of 1,440 votes. The 3rd closest constituency, Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North, was lost by a 4.59% margin and 1,566 votes. All three of these seats were won by Labour, who held them prior to the election.
The rest of the minor parties below did not come close to winning a seat. The seat where each party performed their best is described.
Social Democratic Party’s Best Performing Seats
The Social Democratic Party (SDP), a party with roots going back to the 1980s, is an economically left-leaning, socially conservative. The party achieved its best results in this election since its modern inception, garnering over 33,000 votes nationwide. However, this did not result in any seats nor did the SDP come close to winning a seat. Their best result occurred in Doncaster North where the SDP candidate got 6.32% of the vote. The 2nd best result was in Leeds South, with the SDP candidate getting 5.92%. The 3rd best result for the SDP was in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland where they got 4.78%.
Yorkshire Party’s Best Performing Seat
The Yorkshire Party is a centrist party that seeks to devolved powers to a Yorkshire regional parliament. In a similar fashion to the SNP and Plaid Cymru, the Yorkshire Party only runs candidate in Yorkshire, an area of northern England. The party received just over 17,000 votes overall. The constituency where they had their best performance was Rotherham, where the garnered 3.69%.
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Best Performing Seat
The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC)is an electoral alliance comprised of trade unionists and socialists. TUSC received just under 13,000 votes nationwide, with their best performing constituency being Coventry East where they obtained 2.15%.
Alba’s Best Performing Seat
The Alba Party is a pro-Scottish independence party that split off from the SNP and ran to its right on social issues. Alba got just over 11,000 votes but won no seats; prior to the election, it had 2 MPs who were elected under the SNP but left to join Alba. The party’s best performance was in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy where they received 2.77% of the vote.
Heritage Party’s Best Performing Seat
The Heritage Party is a socially conservative party started in 2020; their leader, David Kurten, is an active political commentator with a sizeable following of over 150,000 on X. The Heritage Party recieved over 6,000 votes nationwide, with the constituency of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton being their best performance at 1.48%.
UK Independence Party’s Best Performing Seats
The UK Independence Party, a right-wing party that can be credited with fostering Britain’s exit from the European Union back in 2015. At its peak, the party won 3.8 million votes in the 2015 UK general election. However, in the 2024 UK general election, UKIP recieved just over 6,000 votes. Their best performance occurred in Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge where they garnered 6.17% of the vote.
Liberal Party’s Best Performing Seat
The Liberal Party is a breakaway continuation of the original Liberal Party from the 19th and 20th centuries; they are described as classical liberals. The Liberal Party obtained just over 6,000 votes, with Liverpool West Derby being their best performance at 6.15%.
English Democrats’ Best Performing Seat
The English Democrats are a right-wing party that are self-described English nationalists who support a devolved parliament for England. They received just over 5,000 votes nationwide, with their best performance being in East Grinstead and Uckfiel with 4.04% of the vote.
British Democratic Party’s Best Performing Seat
The British Democrats are a right-wing party that split off from the British National Party in 2013 and are self-described British ethnic-nationalists. They received just under 2,000 votes overall, with their best performance being in Doncaster North where they garnered 3.74% of the vote.
Sources:
Google sheets of detailed data compiled by Election Maps UK was used.
Bloomberg for detailed results for minor political parties.
Screenshots for each constituency are from their respective Wikipedia pages.
